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Pork butt prices heading towards $2/LB
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Harry Nutczak
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Joined: 01 Mar 2007
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Location: The Northwoods

PostPosted: Apr 09 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Grills Gone Wild wrote:
Harry - Use this price increase to your advantage. You already have a good following and those who eat BBQ know it is a pricey meal. So adding a couple of dollars per lb probably isn't going to scare a lot of people away. However, when the price goes down you will be able to keep your retail prices the same and make better margin.


I agree,
But pork prices have doubled since I reset my pricing along with out move to a larger location a year ago. I've been maintaining a cost ratio under 30% when I do not do something stupid like overcook a few hundred pounds of butts on accident, or have a few pounds end up on the floor occasionally.

Instead of just offering pulled pork, I plan to offer a chopped-pork option too, this should help me move some of the sort of crustier pieces that I can't serve in "Pulled-Pork" item.

It may also allow me to cook it less to get a better starting yield, and use some of those crispier parts that I've been relegating to our beans and waste.

I'm also planning on offering an expanded option of chopped brisket at the same price as my sliced brisket. Some days I see chopped brisket selling 2-1 over sliced due to our specialty sandwiches that use chopped brisket for. It helps to move the points more efficiently.

I'm also considering bringing in green boneless hams for a sliced product with an even higher yield.

QFanatic and I both tried to source just the points of brisket a few years back with no luck, I think they are being ground up by most processors. Or cured into corned beef
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Mr Tony's BBQ
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PostPosted: Apr 21 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just saw Butts are DOWN to $2.02.....I hope this means this trend will continue! Angus choice or better is UP to $3.44 Crying or Very sad
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Texman
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PostPosted: Apr 22 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Posted: Tuesday, April 22, 2014
CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Hog Slaughter


The slaughter poll for the week ending 4/26/14 resulted in an average industry participant estimate of 1,989,000 head. If realized, this figure would represent a .9 percent decline from last week and more than 5 percent lower than the Easter week in 2013 (starting 3/31/13). We had 10 plants down on Monday, which was one more than last year, and the slaughter scheduled for Saturday currently appears to be fairly light partially due to ongoing PEDv related disruptions.

My comment is that producers have been holding back live slaughter swine to get heavier wts to capture higher profits at .94 cents per pound - live price is down to +or-.80 cents this week and futures are down. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks. Kill #'s could be down but heavier wts could force the market lower
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Mr Tony's BBQ
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PostPosted: Apr 22 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am all for kill weights getting higher, all the ribs I have been seeing are getting kinda skimpy on the meat, and fat content on butt's going up! I have been assuming they are force feeding them to get to killable weight, making more fat than muscle! Just a guess on my part....but cutting a few steaks from a butt the other day showed at least 50% fat...great flavor, but low yield!! Crying or Very sad
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Texman
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PostPosted: Apr 22 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mr Tony's BBQ wrote:
I am all for kill weights getting higher, all the ribs I have been seeing are getting kinda skimpy on the meat, and fat content on butt's going up! I have been assuming they are force feeding them to get to killable weight, making more fat than muscle! Just a guess on my part....but cutting a few steaks from a butt the other day showed at least 50% fat...great flavor, but low yield!! Crying or Very sad


Skimpy ribs with less meat means they can capture more value from selling bellies {bacon} and trim spares to leave more on the belly.

Part of the reason for more fat, in some cases is trying to find alternative feeds to help off set the cost of corn that is used for Ethanol. Ethanol is a poor fuel alternative that makes feed costs higher. That may also effect butt fat.
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Mr Tony's BBQ
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PostPosted: Apr 22 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ni kidding on the ethanol being POOR fuel....I filled up w/diesel in Illinois 2 wks ago, 20% ethanol....LOST 3mpg, I only get 7 to begin with in my cube van pulling trailer!!
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Harry Nutczak
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PostPosted: Apr 24 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Texman wrote:


Part of the reason for more fat, in some cases is trying to find alternative feeds to help off set the cost of corn that is used for Ethanol. Ethanol is a poor fuel alternative that makes feed costs higher. That may also effect butt fat.


I've also heard that it takes 1.6 gallons of petroleum to get 1 gallon of ethanol to the pumps, then what is it, like a 40% decrease in mileage too?

Ethanol from corn must be stopped, Brazil uses sugar cane, and their ethanol for industry is self supporting and profitable, ours is subsidized and running at a loss, and causing problems in all aspects of our economy.
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Louie
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PostPosted: May 02 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sysco St Louis cut ribs $7.95 a Kg or $3.64 a lb!! Shocked
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Liberty1776



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PostPosted: May 03 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sam's Club today - near St. Paul - butt was $2.49 for bulk pack...
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Harry Nutczak
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PostPosted: May 03 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

My delivery came in at $1.93/LB up from $1.77 a week ago, and a week before that I was seeing $2.15,
So I have not purchased for over $2/LB yet.

And I have another supplier trying to get a percentage of my meat purchases right now, I don't think he'll get anywhere near my current pricing and level of service that I get from my current supplier.

Its not even comical anymore, He came in to see my invoices because he didn't believe me that my brisket is usually "USDA Prime" and then he took pictures to show his superiors.

Maybe i'll get a fishing trip or something out of them if I throw them a bone once in a while??
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Mr Tony's BBQ
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PostPosted: May 06 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pork butts are back up to $2.10/lb as of this morning thru my wholesaler....was $1.79 last week at R/D and I only bought 2 extra cases thinking it must be on the downswing....there I go thinking again....Angus choice or better is at $3.60.......I used to get trimmed flats for that last summer at Costco.....
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Harry Nutczak
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PostPosted: May 07 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

I had a meeting with a rep from Creekstone beef today at a food show, I like their product. It's decent, it's not my purple-box prim grade that I typically cook, but it's almost as good.

They'd like to see me use their brand exclusively, so maybe I'll get to do a little arm twisting to see what they'll do for me.

I'm tired, drove in 3 different states today, and saw 38 degree temps and Lake Superior still frozen!
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feldon30
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PostPosted: May 11 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote



I almost went into convulsions. It was $6 last week.
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Harry Nutczak
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PostPosted: May 11 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

feldon30 wrote:


I almost went into convulsions. It was $6 last week.


My customers are asking why we do not have any of our specialty bacons available.
My typical reply is "Neither one of us could afford it right now"

Seriously $9.50 for a 12 ounce package of crappy Oscar Mayer bacon that is probably 10%-12% water weight? or are those 16 ounce's?
Still, not gonna happen!!
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Shotgun Petes
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PostPosted: May 12 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

A case of butts at Sam's Club here in Columbia MO cost me $1.99 lb on Saturday.
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Mr Tony's BBQ
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PostPosted: May 12 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wooo-Hooo....Butt's are back down to $2.02.... Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Thats delivered...Still gonna check R/D and fill my freezer......last time there they were at $1.76.....
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RodinBangkok
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PostPosted: May 15 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

FYI: record profits on pork price rise while your taking it in the @ss. I'm all for a free market economy, but the volatility is just too great anymore on these price swings for the small guy to stay alive, just my thoughts its not a problem for me anymore, but still burns me to see this type of profit taking.

excerpt from my market reports:

WH Group subsidiary Smithfield Foods Inc. said its earnings climbed to a record high in the first quarter as the crisis over porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) drove a meteoric rise in pork prices.
Smithfield’s net income surged almost 500 percent to a first-quarter record of $105.3 million, while operating profit nearly tripled, to $196.4 million, from the year before.
Concern about the impact of PEDv on the U.S. hog herd and meat supplies sparked higher values across the entire pork chain, Smithfield Chief Financial Officer Ken Sullivan said on a conference call for bond investors.
“Nobody can remember a hog rally like the one we witnessed in late February and March,” Sullivan said.

China and Russia
Smithfield is shipping fresh and frozen pork into China, where it has opened Smithfield kiosks within retail stores. The company plans to open more than 20 such kiosks in China this year.
The company is building one plant in China, with three more expected to come on line in the next 18 to 24 months to produce Smithfield brand ham, sausage and bacon products.
Smithfield also has begun shipping products to Russia, a key swing market.

:end excerpt

Good use for the profits, building processing facilities in China....
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Mr Tony's BBQ
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PostPosted: May 15 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thats called "Capitalism" and I have no issue with it. If you sell 1 pig and make one dollar, then sell a million, you make a million dollars. [ same as minimum % markup] .Its what most everyone on these parts of these forums can only wish for...Cant blame them for producing a product in demand, and capitalizing in area's their product is wanted and needed - Are you doing your job for free and for the fun of it??
Also cant blame them for moving to area's where they arent taxed to death or forced to pay ridiculous wages, fee's, fines, licensing etc. etc. etc. like they are here in the States, especially since capitalism is how America was built in the first place. All that profit drives any economy thru shareholders, expansions and jobs created from every aspect of their "doing profitable business"... not handouts or taxation which is only counter productive both long and short term.
Highly paid CEO's and employee's at every level of "for profit businesses" buy yachts and Lincolns and create more jobs...NOT rowboats and Yugo's! Forcing a business to double their paid out wages and/or benefits only causes the final product to double in consumer cost...and we have plenty of that going on here.
Finally, remember - this epidemic occurred under STRICT government over site, and it happened anyhow.....and its costing the producers a pretty penny to overcome it, hence our product costs.
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Harry Nutczak
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PostPosted: May 15 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mr Tony's BBQ wrote:
Thats called "Capitalism" and I have no issue with it. If you sell 1 pig and make one dollar, then sell a million, you make a million dollars. [ same as minimum % markup] .Its what most everyone on these parts of these forums can only wish for...Cant blame them for producing a product in demand, and capitalizing in area's their product is wanted and needed - Are you doing your job for free and for the fun of it??
Also cant blame them for moving to area's where they arent taxed to death or forced to pay ridiculous wages, fee's, fines, licensing etc. etc. etc. like they are here in the States, especially since capitalism is how America was built in the first place. All that profit drives any economy thru shareholders, expansions and jobs created from every aspect of their "doing profitable business"... not handouts or taxation which is only counter productive both long and short term.
Highly paid CEO's and employee's at every level of "for profit businesses" buy yachts and Lincolns and create more jobs...NOT rowboats and Yugo's! Forcing a business to double their paid out wages and/or benefits only causes the final product to double in consumer cost...and we have plenty of that going on here.
Finally, remember - this epidemic occurred under STRICT government over site, and it happened anyhow.....and its costing the producers a pretty penny to overcome it, hence our product costs.


Yeah, What he said!
I can't really say what else I'd like to add to that, because it'll blow apart the TOS for this forum
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SoEzzy
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PostPosted: May 15 2014    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thank you Harry!
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